Risk assessment

The purpose of this step is to arrive at an agreed vulnerability and risk assessment for the city system.

To properly address the impact of climate change, a detailed understanding of the possible consequences of climate threats is crucial. By combining the consequences of a hazard with the likelihood of its occurrence, a risk assessment provides a clear picture of the exposure, vulnerability and risk per climate threat for an urban area or asset. This is an important basis for deciding which climate threats should be addressed and to what extent.

The structure for this step is based on the EU Guidelines for risk assessments (2010)[1]. The EU Guideline outlines 3 main stages in determining risk:

One could argue that these stages are preceded by a context analysis, for which input from the previous steps in the E-guide can be used. There are several tools and methods available to provide support in this aspect. Table 1 shows a range of these tools with hyperlinks to external websites. Most of the tools specifically address one climate threat. They also differ in whether they assess exposure, vulnerability or risk to climate hazards.

Table 1 Tools to determine exposure, vulnerability and/or risk to a climate threat (Exposure: X; Vulnerability: O; Risk: Δ)

Climate threat Tool Flooding Heat Drought and water scarcity Sea level rise
Quick scan heat stress map X
Ramses UrbClim X (O?)
Climate Impact Atlas X X X X
Freiburg heat tool X
Urban Climate Map System X
3Di X (O?) X
Wolk X
CityFlood X
CliCo Δ Δ Δ Δ
RESIN City Typology X, Δ, O X, Δ, O  X, Δ, O  X, Δ, O

[1] EC (2010). Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management. COMMISSION STAFF WORKING PAPER. Brussels, 21.12.2010 SEC(2010) 1626 final

RESIN City Typology

If the spatial focus is at the macro scale (cities, regions, nation states etc), the RESIN City typology exposure and vulnerability layers could be of value to this task, as well as the typology outputs and the risk analysis that they provide.
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